The Evidence · Case: Tesla
The brand that comes to mind first
Tesla shows that a brand can occupy the category in the buyer's mind with almost no paid advertising, and that occupying the mind is not the same as being preferred.
There is an instant that precedes any purchase: the one in which the buyer tries to recall who exists in the category. The Ehrenberg-Bass school calls it mental availability, being in the mind at the moment of decision, being the brand that first comes up when the category is evoked. It is an asset distinct from market share and distinct from preference. And it is an asset that is built, or lost, in perception.
Tesla is the case that makes that mechanism visible. In a young category, it built a dominant salience with an advertising budget close to zero for more than a decade. What the evidence proves, and what it does not prove, is exactly the boundary that matters to anyone treating the brand as an asset to be measured.
Being the first name the category evokes
When a buyer is asked, without being given options, which brand they associate with a category, the thing closest to mental availability is measured: what comes to mind on its own. That was the question Morning Consult (2021) put to US adults. To the open question about electric vehicles, 51% named Tesla. To the broader question about environmentally friendly vehicles, 40% named Tesla. In both cases, above the runner-up, Toyota.
This is the heart of the case. It is not a sales figure nor stated intention. It is proof that a brand managed to inscribe itself in the category's memory to the point of being the name that comes up first, unprompted. That is what we mean when we say perception decides before experience.
Salience built almost without paid advertising
What makes the previous figure remarkable is what produced it. According to Vivvix estimates reported by Reuters, Tesla operated with traditional paid advertising spend close to zero for more than a decade. Only after Elon Musk said, at the shareholders' meeting of May 2023, that the company would try advertising, did estimated US spend rise from about 1.75 million dollars in 2022 to 6.4 million in 2023. Against the roughly 3.6 billion dollars that GM invested globally in the same year, it is a marginal figure.
The sentence that marked the turn was sober. At the meeting of 16 May 2023, in Austin, Musk replied to a shareholder that they would try a little advertising and see how it went, according to CNBC's coverage. There was no declared strategy, there was a decision in the moment. The salience already existed before that, built outside the advertising accounts.
The principle is what NP defends: a brand's authority is not bought in media space alone. It is built in perception, and a brand that occupies the mind without the paid megaphone reveals that the value was in the recognition, not in the budget.
Being in the mind is not being chosen
Here is the boundary that prevents the exaggeration. The same brand that dominates salience does not dominate consideration. According to YouGov BrandIndex data, only 7.7% of the US population said they would consider Tesla for their next car purchase, and the average sentiment of the general public was negative. At the same time, 70% of current owners would consider it again.
The portrait is of a brand simultaneously salient, polarised and of modest active consideration among the general public. Being remembered first does not guarantee being chosen, nor guarantee being well regarded. Mental availability is a condition of the decision, not the decision.
A brand that weighs on the balance sheet
Perception, once installed, tends to translate into value. In the Brand Finance Global 500 ranking of 2023, Tesla rose to ninth place, from twenty-eighth in 2022, with a brand value of 66.2 billion dollars, up 44% on the previous year. It is the secondary axis of this case, the brand read as a financial asset, but it aligns with the central axis: the recognition that occupies the mind is the same that valuers translate into a number.
We record this figure with due caution. Brand value is modelled, depends on the methodology, and is a portrait at a point in time. It is not a trend, it is a snapshot.
What this case does not prove
This case is correlational, not causal. The central proof of mental availability is a portrait of the US in 2021, with an open question and a limited sample, and it measures salience and fame, an indicator close to but not the complete measure of Ehrenberg-Bass. It is dated. And it is not proved that it was the founder's communication or the attention earned in the press that created the salience: the source itself attributes part of the advantage to the category-pioneer status. The pioneer effect and the perception effect are confounded, and they do not separate with this data.
Nothing here guarantees a return in a specific business. Brand value is modelled and receded in later years. The advertising figures are estimates. The founder's anchor quotation was confirmed by convergence of several outlets, but the primary source could not be read directly. The case proves a principle about how perception behaves in a category, not a promise about what happens to a specific brand.
The Tesla case proves the principle: mental availability is a real asset, distinct from preference, and is built in perception before any paid advertising. What this case cannot say is how much that principle is worth in your specific business. That is measured case by case, with the data of your category, your buyers and your moment of decision. It is precisely that diagnosis that a Strategic Listening begins by making: separating salience from preference, understanding where your brand already lives in the memory of those who decide, and where it does not yet live.
Book a Strategic ListeningSources
Mental availability and salience
- Morning Consult (2021), As Consumer Interest in Electric Cars Grows, Tesla Still Dominates the Conversation. Open question, 51% for electric vehicles and 40% for environmentally friendly vehicles, Toyota second. Source
Advertising investment
- Reuters, with Vivvix estimates (2024), Tesla spends more on advertising than ever before, but still lags big auto. About 1.75 million dollars in 2022 and 6.4 million in 2023 in the US, against 3.6 billion from GM globally. Source
- Lora Kolodny, CNBC (2023), Tesla 2023 shareholder meeting. Elon Musk's statement about trying advertising, meeting of 16 May 2023 in Austin. Source
Consideration and sentiment
- YouGov BrandIndex (2024), Steady consideration for Tesla despite recalls and headlines. General consideration of 7.7%, negative average sentiment of the general public and 70% of current owners who would consider it again. Source
Brand value (secondary axis)
- Brand Finance, Global 500 2023, reported by Teslarati. Brand value of 66.2 billion dollars, up 44% on the previous year, ninth place. Secondary source, modelled value and at a point in time. Source