The Evidence · Case: Rolex
The brand that keeps value on the wrist
When authority and scarcity come together, the brand stops being just reputation and starts behaving like an asset: it holds price on resale. The Rolex case proves the pattern, with all the limits in plain sight.
Scarcity has an economic basis, not a rhetorical one
In 2023 Rolex generated an estimated revenue of about 10.1 billion Swiss francs, roughly 11% more than in 2022, with an estimated production of about 1.24 million watches and a share above 30% of the Swiss luxury watch market. According to estimates from Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult, the brand's sales exceeded the sum of the next five combined, among them Cartier, Omega, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe and Richard Mille. What sustains the thesis is not the revenue in isolation, it is the combination: record turnover with deliberately restrained production. It is that restraint that keeps demand above supply and feeds the scarcity the market then prices.
Holding price above purchase is the most literal proof of a store of value
On the secondary market, according to the Morgan Stanley x WatchCharts synthesis, only Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet retain, on average, value above the retail price. All the other major brands trade, on average, below the purchase price. To trade above what was paid is the most literal definition of a store of value: the object not only holds its value but, in some cases, returns it with a gain. It is the brand working as an asset, not as an expense that depreciates on leaving the shop.
Over the period measured, the watch beat the stock index
Between August 2018 and January 2023, according to the Boston Consulting Group report Luxury Preowned Watches, Your Time Has Come, secondary-market prices for the top models of the three largest brands rose at an average rate of about 20% a year, against about 8% a year for the S&P 500 index over the same period. It is the strongest primary source in this case, an official PDF from the consultancy, and it shows that, in that window, the authority materialised in the object returned more than the benchmark stock market.
The store of value has real volatility and responds to the cycle
Value on the secondary market does not rise in a straight line. After the peak of March 2022, and in the context of the aggressive rise in interest rates, the general market index (WatchCharts Overall Market Index, reported by Bloomberg) fell about 37% and the Rolex-specific index about 31%. In 2025, the same indices closed the year in positive territory, the first annual recovery since 2022, which weakens the reading that it was all an isolated peak and reinforces the reading of a store of value over the long term. The premium, note, concentrates where authority and scarcity are greatest: some Patek Philippe Nautilus models trade more than 50% above retail and Certified Pre-Owned Rolex watches command about 30% more than the equivalent uncertified ones. It is certification and structural demand sustaining the premium, not the simple label of the brand.
What this case does not prove
It does not prove clean causality between scarcity and appreciation. The fall of about 37% since March 2022 coincided with the monetary tightening of the United States Federal Reserve. Interest rates, speculation, fashion and the macroeconomic cycle move prices as much as or more than the brand. What is shown here is correlation and pattern, not an isolated causal relationship. And the store-of-value behaviour itself is an average that only holds in a handful of steel references, with the rest of the catalogue trading below retail.
Above all, it is a sample of one. Rolex combines more than a century of authority, structural demand and controlled distribution. Nothing here proves that making a brand artificially scarce turns it into a store of value. Without the authority built over decades, scarcity is not an asset, it is merely a stock-out.
The lesson is not to manufacture scarcity. It is to understand that, when the authority already exists and is genuine, restraint stops being a risk of lost sales and becomes the mechanism that makes the brand keep value. Rolex shows the principle at the extreme: decades of authority first, scarcity afterwards, store of value as a consequence. Whether the same mechanism works in your business, and to what degree, is not declared from a case of watch luxury. That is measured case by case, with the numbers of your market and your portfolio. That is where a Strategic Listening begins.
Book a Strategic ListeningSources
Revenue and market position
- Morgan Stanley + LuxeConsult (Top 50 of Swiss watchmaking 2023), via swissinfo — Rolex Sales Top $10 Billion as Luxury Watchmaker Gains Ground · secondary · 2024 (2023 financial year) · ≈10.1 billion CHF, ≈1.24 million units, >30% share, +11% vs 2022 (estimates) Source
Store of value and secondary-market premium
- Trilogy Jewellers — The Morgan Stanley x WatchCharts Watch Market Review · secondary · 2025 · Rolex, Patek and AP above retail on average; Patek Nautilus +50%+; Rolex CPO ≈+30% vs uncertified Source
- Boston Consulting Group — Luxury Preowned Watches, Your Time Has Come · primary · 2023 · ≈20%/year (top Rolex/Patek/AP watches) vs ≈8%/year (S&P 500), Aug. 2018 to Jan. 2023 Source
Volatility and cycle (transaction indices)
- WatchCharts index, reported by Bloomberg/Gulf News — Rolex, Patek prices hit fresh two-year lows · secondary · 2023 · ≈-37% general index and ≈-31% Rolex index since the peak of Mar. 2022 Source
- WatchCharts — December and Full Year 2025 Watch Market Update · secondary · 2025 · 2025 closes the indices in positive territory, first annual gain since 2022 (decimals not confirmed in a primary source) Source